Fitch Affirms Siam Future Development; Rates THB500m Bonds ‘BBB(tha)’

           Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited has affirmed Siam Future Development Public Company LimitedRFitch Ratings7;s (SF) National Long-Term Rating at RFitch Ratings6;BBB(tha)RFitch Ratings7; with a Stable Outlook, its National Short-Term rating at RFitch Ratings6;F3(tha)RFitch Ratings7; and its outstanding senior unsecured debentures at RFitch Ratings6;BBB(tha)RFitch Ratings7;. 
          Fitch has simultaneously assigned SFRFitch Ratings7;s new issue of up to THB5Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Developmentm senior unsecured debentures due in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings6 a National Long-Term Rating of RFitch Ratings6;BBB(tha)RFitch Ratings7;. The proceeds will be used to refinance maturing debentures. The notes are rated at the same level as SFRFitch Ratings7;s National Long-Term rating as they represent direct, unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company. 

          Key Rating Drivers
          High Financial Leverage: Fitch expects SFRFitch Ratings7;s net adjusted debt to EBITDAR to remain high at 5.5x-6.5x during 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5, after the cancellation of its capital raising plan of THB6Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Developmentm-THBFitch Ratingsbn in 2HFitch Ratings3. The cancellation was due to unfavourable market conditions as well as the subsequent postponement of its investment plan, mainly for joint ventures with the existing and potential partners, resulting in a reduction in projected investment of THB5Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Developmentm-55Siam Future Developmentm in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4.
          Improving Recurring Income Growth: SF is likely to post recurring income growth of about Fitch Ratings% in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4 and about 8% in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5. SF has successfully recruited new anchor tenants to replace tenants terminating their leases at its major centres i.e. The Esplanade and The Avenue Pattaya in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4. This should help to compensate for a decrease in revenues in some centres that were affected by the political rallies in Fitch RatingsHFitch Ratings4. SF also plans to open four new centres in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5 (mostly expansion phases) with total gross leasable areas (GLA) of about 26,Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Development square metres (sq.m).
          Strong Market Position: SF is a leading developer of Thai medium-sized open-air shopping centres. SFRFitch Ratings7;s larger portfolio, greater experience and expertise in this niche gives it an advantage over its peers. SF has a quality and diversified shopping-centre portfolio in terms of location. It was able to maintain an average occupancy of more than 9Siam Future Development% since the opening of its first centre in Fitch Ratings995, despite experiencing some tenant issues and low traffic in some major centres in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings2-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3. Fitch expects SFRFitch Ratings7;s average occupancy to be at about 95% in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5 (2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3: about 92%). 
          Secured Cash Flow: SF has long-term leases for about 65% of its total gross leasable area (GLA), which contributes around 3Siam Future Development%-35% of total recurring income. Its anchor tenants are also high profile and diversified. The space rented to its five largest tenants account for 4Siam Future Development% of total GLA, while the largest tenant − occupying Fitch Ratings5% of total GLA − is a related company. Mega Bangna, its first mega joint-venture (JV) project, contributed cash flow in the form of dividends since 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3. Dividends from its first full-year of operations - paid in early 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4 - were about 2Siam Future Development% of SFRFitch Ratings7;s EBITDAR in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3. 
          Reliance on refinancing: SFRFitch Ratings7;s THB54Siam Future Developmentm debt, including THB5Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Developmentm debentures, will mature over the next Fitch Ratings2 months. The company plans to refinance the maturing debt with new debentures. SFRFitch Ratings7;s liquidity is supported by a cash balance and liquid investments of THB64.4m, and undrawn committed bank facilities of THB867m at end-March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4. 

          Rating Sensitivities
          Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include:
          - Deterioration in recurring income with rental-derived EBITDA to interest expense at below 3.Siam Future Developmentx on a sustained basis (FY to March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4: 3.7x)
          -Financial leverage as measured by adjusted net debt to EBITDAR at above 6.5x on a sustained basis (FY to March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4: 6.5x)

          Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating
action include:
          -Improvement in recurring income with rental-derived EBITDA to interest expense at above 4.5x on a sustained basis 
          -Financial leverage at below 4.5x on a sustained basis

          Positive rating action is unlikely over the next Fitch Ratings2-Fitch Ratings8 months due to the companyRFitch Ratings7;s sustained high financial leverage.
 

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