Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited has affirmed Siam Future Development Public Company LimitedRFitch Ratings7;s (SF) National Long-Term Rating at RFitch Ratings6;BBB(tha)RFitch Ratings7; with a Stable Outlook, its National Short-Term Rating at RFitch Ratings6;F3(tha)RFitch Ratings7; and its outstanding senior unsecured debentures at RFitch Ratings6;BBB(tha)RFitch Ratings7;.
Key Rating Drivers
Decreasing Financial Leverage: Fitch expects SFRFitch Ratings7;s net adjusted debt to EBITDAR to decrease to 4.5x-5.5x during 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings7, a level that will be more in line with its rating, from 5.7x at end-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4 and 6.8x at end-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3. The significant decline in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4 was driven by the shopping centre developerRFitch Ratings7;s small capex and investment, and a large dividend received from a 49%-owned joint venture that operates Mega Bangna, a Fitch Ratings4Siam Future Development,Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Development square metre shopping mall in the Bangkok suburbs.
Moderate Recurring Income Growth: SF is likely to post recurring income growth of 6%-7% in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5 and 3%-5% a year in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings6-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings7. The increase in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5 will be propelled by the inclusion of a full-year of operation of the new tenants recruited in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4 as well as an expected increase in casual leasing income. SFRFitch Ratings7;s plan to open a new small centre in late 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5 and expand an existing centre in 2HFitch Ratings7 should support moderate income growth over the medium term.
Strong Market Position: SF is a leading developer of medium-sized open-air shopping centres in Thailand. SFRFitch Ratings7;s larger portfolio, and more extensive experience and expertise give it an advantage over its peers. SF has a high-quality and diversified shopping-centre portfolio in terms of location. It has maintained an average occupancy of more than 9Siam Future Development% since the opening of its first centre in Fitch Ratings995, despite facing tenant issues and low traffic in some major centres in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings2-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings3. Fitch expects SFRFitch Ratings7;s average occupancy to be at 94%-95% in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings7 (2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings4: about 94%).
Secured Cash Flows: SF has long-term leases for about 65% of its total gross leasable area (GLA), which account for around 3Siam Future Development%-35% of total recurring income. Its anchor tenants are high profile and diversified. The space rented to its five largest tenants accounts for about 4Siam Future Development% of total GLA, while the largest tenant, which occupies Fitch Ratings6% of total GLA, is a related company. SF will not immediately feel the impact of weak consumption and spending because its cash flows derive from rental payments from tenants.
Reliance on Refinancing: SF has THB84Siam Future Developmentm of debt that will mature over the Fitch Ratings2 months from 3Fitch Ratings March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5. The company plans to refinance the maturing debt with new debentures. SFRFitch Ratings7;s liquidity is supported by cash balances and short-term investments of THB398m, and undrawn committed bank facilities of THBFitch Ratings.4bn at end-March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
FitchRFitch Ratings7;s key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:
- 3%-6% total revenue growth in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings7;
- Improvement in EBITDAR margin as revenue increases while a large portion of the costs are fixed;
- Total capex (including maintenance and renovation capex) of THB9Siam Future DevelopmentSiam Future Developmentm in 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5-2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings7.
Rating Sensitivities
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include:
- Deterioration in recurring income with the ratio of rental-derived EBITDA to interest expense at below 3.Siam Future Developmentx on a sustained basis (Fitch Ratings2 months to 3Fitch Ratings March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5: 4.3x)
-Financial leverage as measured by adjusted net debt to EBITDAR at above 6.5x on a sustained basis (Fitch Ratings2 months to 3Fitch Ratings March 2Siam Future DevelopmentFitch Ratings5: 5.4x)
Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include:
-Improvement in recurring income with the ratio of rental-derived EBITDA to interest expense at above 4.5x on a sustained basis
-Financial leverage at below 4.5x on a sustained basis
Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited has affirmed community-mall developer and operator Siam Future Development Public Company Limited's (SF) National Long-Term Rating at 'BBB+(tha)' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the National Short-Term Rating at 'F2(tha)' and national senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+(tha)'. The National Long-Term Rating incorporates a two-notch uplift from SF's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) for support from its stronger 99.7% parent, Central Pattana Public